Since the October 7th massacre in Israel, I have easily read over 100 learned articles by serious scholars and pundits with impressive academic and professional backgrounds. And I’ve patiently listened to hours of podcasts on the subject of the Israel-Hamas war.
The bottom line is that no one knows what is going to happen next. There are simply too many players and variables. We are in terra incognita — an unknown and unknowable place in world history.
Nonetheless, the human brain tries to make sense of things — to make a plausible model of reality to act upon. Otherwise, we would likely be paralyzed by fear or simply go mad.
To try to condense and clarify the morass of words and pictures simmering in my skull from both mass media and online sources, I have come up with the following eight points that I believe to have some kernel of hard truth in them.
They were arrived at with a very knowledgeable Israeli-American friend over a period of about two months. Here they are for your consideration:
1
Iran currently has the power to endanger Israel, even without nukes, through the actions of their proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. The most serious threat is posed by Hezbollah, based in Lebanon and funded and armed by Iran. They are estimated to have close to 150,000 rockets and missiles, about one-quarter of which could reach all parts of Israel.
2
The U.S. and other global powers could manage to live with an Iran armed with nuclear weapons. All the Iranians need to do to facilitate their survival is keep their oil flowing at reasonable prices, not interfere with global shipping and refrain from openly antagonizing the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
3
The manipulation of global public opinion is often financed by Qatar and other Arab nations, with Qatar-based Al Jezeera being an especially efficient tool towards that end. Its worldwide broadcasts are dominated by blatantly anti-Semitic and anti-Zionist programming, which continues to make daily life increasingly difficult and unsafe for Jews everywhere to openly express their opinions. Given the current international political climate, this could result in increasing challenges for Diaspora Jews to advance to positions of influence and power.
4
Israel is the only hope for Jewish continuity and consciousness. Given current trends and the continuing growth of anti-Semitism, Jewish communal life in Europe could be nearly non-existent by 2050, and South America could go the same way. Jewish communities in North America could be much smaller and less influential than in the recent past.
5
The failure of the Israel Defense Forces and security services to anticipate and prevent the Hamas massacre has severely damaged their reputation, both in global mass media and online social media. Their former repute as Jewish Spartans and James Bonds has been shattered, resulting in the emboldening of anti-Semites around the globe.
6
Despite legitimate concerns associated with global warming and climate change, dependence on oil could easily last another 50 years. This ensures that hundreds of billions of petrodollars will continue to flow into the coffers of Sunni Arabs, Shiite Iranians and nihilistic Russians. Their war of ill will against Western democracies and Israel can be easily financed and escalated for decades to come.
7
The ever-popular ‘two-state solution’ is based on an absurdity and is totally misunderstood by the global players who advocate it. A Palestinian state would be a base for terrorists bent on destroying Israel and could easily be co-opted by its so-called Muslim brothers and sisters.
8
As long as the violently anti-Zionist mullahs control Iran, there will be constant threats to Israel’s security. Therefore, Israel must succeed in defeating Hamas in Gaza and rebuilding its military strength and reputation. Power through strength is the only way to survive in the Middle East.